mank
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Post by mank on Sept 3, 2020 14:09:01 GMT -5
Graham, Interesting reading. It does explain what my son said he sees with covid lungs looking different than any other disease he has seen as a radiologist. I would get the first round of vaccines. In fact, if there was a trial near me I would volunteer.
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frodi
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Post by frodi on Sept 3, 2020 14:36:31 GMT -5
It is interesting reading OK. It certainly shows that we now have better treatments (albeit not fully tested) leading to lower fatality rates.
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 4, 2020 7:44:03 GMT -5
I also read that article too. It is a very interesting read. Also highlights how little we still really know about this virus.
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mank
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Post by mank on Sept 4, 2020 11:56:25 GMT -5
I also read that article too. It is a very interesting read. Also highlights how little we still really know about this virus. Let me preface this with I am not saying you are wrong or right Marty, but I chuckled at your response after reading Frodi's response. This is the point I have been making all along I think you seem to be, a half-empty glass sort or person. Frodi saw a positive spin on the article and you went the other way. Frodi says we have better treatments and you say we don't know enough. I am NOT saying you are wrong but it does point out people's different perspectives. I say the hell with it let's all chip in and buy the $25,000 bottle of Glenlivet 50 year old Scotch and drink it.
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 4, 2020 16:32:13 GMT -5
I also read that article too. It is a very interesting read. Also highlights how little we still really know about this virus. Let me preface this with I am not saying you are wrong or right Marty, but I chuckled at your response after reading Frodi's response. This is the point I have been making all along I think you seem to be, a half-empty glass sort or person. Frodi saw a positive spin on the article and you went the other way. Frodi says we have better treatments and you say we don't know enough. I am NOT saying you are wrong but it does point out people's different perspectives. I say the hell with it let's all chip in and buy the $25,000 bottle of Glenlivet 50 year old Scotch and drink it. Funny you would think that. If we had a proper means of controlling this virus permanently and merely had to get it out to the world I’d say then the glass is half full. At the moment in terms of this virus the glass is still not even half full. Good news and developments that may be encouraging are great of course but we’re a long way from be3ing done with this still. I again prefer to consider myself a realist.
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 4, 2020 18:15:20 GMT -5
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Stan
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Post by Stan on Sept 8, 2020 19:34:09 GMT -5
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 8, 2020 21:09:54 GMT -5
Nominate all of them for Darwin awards this year.
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Jim
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Post by Jim on Sept 11, 2020 20:33:30 GMT -5
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Stan
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Post by Stan on Sept 11, 2020 20:54:34 GMT -5
But, but, it was on Fox. It's gotta be fair and unbiased.
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mank
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Post by mank on Sept 14, 2020 8:13:02 GMT -5
After reading that article it seems the event did create a surge in cases of Covid of around 290, but 200,000 or more seems highly unlikely.
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Post by kellylorraine on Sept 14, 2020 9:28:37 GMT -5
Little Man started back to school on Wednesday. Our district is doing a hybrid 3 in school/3 remote days schedule for grades 3-12 (K-2 is able to go 100% in person due to enough students doing the 100% remote option). Last night we got an email that a kid from his school (but not his class) tested positive for COVID. The kid only attended Wednesday and isn't in his class, so no worries for us. From that class, the kids and the teacher and their families have to quarantine for 14 days. Our district has a 100% mask requirement, including when the kids are seated (which has a 6' distance requirement), so hopefully the exposure is nil.
With all the restrictions in place, NY had a <1% positive rate for quite some time. I think we were about a month before hitting just over 1% for a day but last I heard, we were <1% the next day. Our area has had a little spike (a bunch of colleges) and just hit around 2%. One college has already been closed and transitioned to 100% remote after 600+ cases in a two week period.
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Ben
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Post by Ben on Sept 15, 2020 14:50:40 GMT -5
But, but, it was on Fox. It's gotta be fair and unbiased. I wonder if you notice the irony of mocking Fox for perceived lack of fair, unbiased coverage, in response to an article they published which provides a different viewpoint. Isn't that the definition of fair coverage? Publishing both sides, including views with which one does not necessarily agree?
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 15, 2020 19:13:01 GMT -5
But, but, it was on Fox. It's gotta be fair and unbiased. I wonder if you notice the irony of mocking Fox for perceived lack of fair, unbiased coverage, in response to an article they published which provides a different viewpoint. Isn't that the definition of fair coverage? Publishing both sides, including views with which one does not necessarily agree? I’ve seen Fox cover Trump. There’s bias and then there’s Fox bias.
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Stan
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Post by Stan on Sept 15, 2020 20:46:18 GMT -5
In a normal world, a bunch of dumbass bikers holding a rally in spite of a pandemic wouldn't be political. The fact that this piece of garbage reporting is on Fox talks more to their tabloid nature than their politics. I'm ridiculing Fox's journalism, rather than their political bias.
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 16, 2020 20:21:40 GMT -5
So I was going to post this in politics but decided it was not but is Covid related. The article is from the Toronto Star. A publication generally a lot more Liberal than I. There is your disclosure. But I find no political slant on this even though I’ll attach a tiny one to it. The political slant is that “Don got tough on upselling” the virus. He “shut down travel from China.” The fair part of me says that as a leader I would also likely not ban citizens from returning but knowing they were coming from a hot spot they could have done a heck of a lot more to quarantine returning citizens. Hell if you were living abroad it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. Likewise to be fair the virus spreads silently and secretly so by the time they thought they should be doing something it was too late. But still as I am reading the new Woodward book it’s blatantly clear that POTUS had the info presented to him to take action and he decided to try and see if it would silently disappear quickly. Bad gamble and he did it on American’s nickels whether they required health care they needed to pay/co-pay for or whether they lost their lives over it. More could have been done. www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/09/16/how-did-covid-19-actually-spread-through-north-america-new-study-says-the-early-cases-in-washington-state-were-not-the-culprit.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=star_web_ymbii
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MalcolmR
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Post by MalcolmR on Sept 17, 2020 6:34:04 GMT -5
Marty, I have severe reservations about ANY study that involes 'computer simulations'. Some of the most powerful computers on the planet try to simulate our weather patterns in order to provide an accurate forecast. They fail most of the time, despite trying day after day, month after month, year after year.
I would place no value at all on the simulations of the spread of a single disease.
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 17, 2020 7:52:38 GMT -5
The fair part of me says that as a leader I would also likely not ban citizens from returning but knowing they were coming from a hot spot they could have done a heck of a lot more to quarantine returning citizens. Hell if you were living abroad it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. Likewise to be fair the virus spreads silently and secretly so by the time they thought they should be doing something it was too late.
The thing was, as with what happened here in the UK, the information was already out there.
We had had warnings of what was happening in China, Italy and other countries. but some leaders decided that "keeping businesses running" (ie making money) was more important, so sought to downplay the issue and not take the actions that, had they been imposed from the start, could have stopped a serious situation becoming a crisis.
As you mention, for a long time, people were allowed to arrive at UK airports and then leave with no checks, testing or requirements to quarantine, even when they were coming from known hot spots.
There was too much of our leaders thinking "Let's pull the blankets over our heads and hope it all goes away" and pretending to the public that they were in control and were doing the "right thing"...
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 17, 2020 8:04:33 GMT -5
Marty, I have severe reservations about ANY study that involes 'computer simulations'. Some of the most powerful computers on the planet try to simulate our weather patterns in order to provide an accurate forecast. They fail most of the time, despite trying day after day, month after month, year after year.
With the virus, you're only dealing with around seven billion data points, one for each person. For many of them, their behaviour is limited to a predictably small area of home, work, shopping, entertainment. Some will travel further afield between cities, others will travel internationally.
You can work out an idea of how many people they will come into contact with in shops, public transport, offices etc which is actually pretty simple in terms of modelling.
Compare that to weather where you have trillions of data points: the amount of solar radiation that falls on a particular area, the amount of water vapour, atmospheric conditions from the surface up to the edge of space, pollution, ocean temperatures etc, and remember that you're only going to be able to gather a fraction of this information.
So you're starting from insufficient information, meaning you need to add "educated guesses" and couple that with "chaotic" equations that mean that a tiny shift in the initial data can cause wide variances in the end results and weather forecasting becomes much more complicated than the behaviour of populations.
Also, of course, you can affect the behaviour of populations by restricting transport, ordering lockdowns etc so modelling behaviour on the sort of scale that was needed to show the risks of not doing anything to control the virus could be catastrophic would be much easier.
Unfortunately it also requires that leaders have the intelligence to *listen* to the warnings and act on them...
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MalcolmR
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Post by MalcolmR on Sept 17, 2020 12:08:44 GMT -5
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mank
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Post by mank on Sept 22, 2020 9:31:29 GMT -5
This is for Malcolm, Graham, and Frodi,
I heard a reporter today from London, Oliver Lane, saying there are new restrictions in the UK with mandatory mask laws now and the rule of 6 will be enforced. No more than 6 people at any gathering is allowed. He also stated that people are encouraged to squeal on their friends and neighbors who break the rule of 6. Is that true? Are people squealing? And again, I have no dog in the fight, but it sounds straight out of George Orwell's 1984.
How are the people reacting to this?
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MalcolmR
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Post by MalcolmR on Sept 22, 2020 11:52:26 GMT -5
The rule of six came in last week. It was ignored by many. I'm afraid the government has fallen into the trap of "We must be seen to be doing something. If it works, we were right, if it doesn't, it would have been worse". As a nation, many of us are happy to ignore rules that we can't see a reason for.
All governments and politicians love a good crisis. It ensures they get plenty of airtime, and perhaps, just perhaps, a place in history.
Are people squealing on their neighbours? I suppose it depends on how well you like your neighbours, and whether or not they invited you to the party. Masks are only mandatory in stores and on public transport, not at home or in the street.
The really stupid rule that came in today is that all pubs and bars must close at 10pm. How the fuch will that stop the spread?
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Post by Juli on Sept 22, 2020 12:51:42 GMT -5
So, what is the best way to handle things? Just let people do what they want and if they spread disease to others, no biggie?
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MalcolmR
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Post by MalcolmR on Sept 22, 2020 13:15:28 GMT -5
The government needs to stop over-reacting. The death toll in the UK is currently at 7% of what it was at its peak. There is just no need for further random decrees.
For example. I am no longer allowed to go up to a bar and buy a drink. I must sit at a table and the bar has to provide a waiter service. How does that stop the spread? There is still a movement of one person from my table to the bar. Does it matter whether it is me or the waiter? If I am a spreader, I will only spread it to the other people that I pass en route to the bar. If the waiter is a spreader, everybody in the bar will get it.
Everyone on public transport must wear a mask, but the officials enforcing this are not wearing masks, just visors. How do visors stop the spread? (Except for people who might spit at them.) The infected air simply flows around the visor.
I cannot visit my friends' house if there are 6 people already in there, but we can all go to the pub, as long as we sit at two tables.
You can have 15 guests at a wedding, but 30 at a funeral.
I have no idea what that means.
In Scotland, but not England,
I swear they are picking these rules at random.
During the first lockdown, the rules were simple. Stay at home unless you have to go to work, the supermarket or the pharmacist, or are getting up to one hour of exercise. Straightforward rules that 95% of people obeyed. These silly, petty rules are asking to be broken.
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Jim
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Post by Jim on Sept 22, 2020 13:45:04 GMT -5
I think your government is taking hints from mine, Malcolm. Indoor gatherings of no more than 25 people. Outdoor gatherings of no more than 100 people, unless it's a graduation where the limit is 150. $250 fines for attending an oversized gathering. $500 for organizing an oversized gathering. still, no limits on protest sizes.
My boss's wife threw him a surprise protest against the march of time over the weekend.
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frodi
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Post by frodi on Sept 22, 2020 15:25:36 GMT -5
This is for Malcolm, Graham, and Frodi, I heard a reporter today from London, Oliver Lane, saying there are new restrictions in the UK with mandatory mask laws now and the rule of 6 will be enforced. No more than 6 people at any gathering is allowed. He also stated that people are encouraged to squeal on their friends and neighbors who break the rule of 6. Is that true? Are people squealing? And again, I have no dog in the fight, but it sounds straight out of George Orwell's 1984. How are the people reacting to this? Squealing isn't in the Irish psyche. No need for it, shame and self guilt works wonders. For the most part Ireland is open except for Dublin city and county which is at a level higher. Those over 40 are fairly ok with the guidelines but the younger generation are only keeping to them when they have to. I went to the supermarket on Sunday only to see gangs of teenagers hanging around together with no masks or social distancing.
There was one well publicised rave/party in the north inner city on Saturday. To put it in context this is an area that I would be wary of travelling into during daylight.
Having said all that I'm planning to head out on the bike tomorrow for a spin to Limerick and Cork. If stopped I'm a pharmacist on my way to work in a town just outside of Dublin. It will be about an 8 hour round trip with 3 photo rally points. Apart from stops for petrol I don't plan to come in contact with anybody for the day. Sounds like a perfect day!
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Post by martycanuck on Sept 22, 2020 18:07:05 GMT -5
Well we did something today we have not done in 6 months plus. We went to a major shopping mall. I wanted the new Apple Watch bad (so sue me!). The store is by appointment only so you book your time ahead and then show up at the time.
Now to back track a bit we did both wear masks going in. We did follow the directional arrows on the walking areas of the mall. The mall was much less busy than I have EVER seen it mind you. Distancing was not a problem. The Apple store experience wasn’t as “fun” as it used to be but I think they did a good job finding creative solutions to keep things moving. You could not go in without an employee. They met you outside. You had to get a temperature screening before entering. Wrap up your business and move on. But it was fine overall.
We went to only one other store this trip and got what we were after and got out.
It was almost nice to be there.
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mank
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Post by mank on Sept 23, 2020 7:40:28 GMT -5
I agree with Malcolm's sentiment there seems to be no rhyme or reason for some of the rules here in Pennsylvania. Governor Wolf implemented 25% capacity at restaurants which has destroyed a lot of businesses. He was sued in court over some of his rules by various counites in PA and they have won. A federal judge has ruled that Wolf's rules for restaurants and sporting events is unconstitutional. He asked for a stay so he can appeal but that was denied. There have been a few restaurants that have ignored the 25% rule and have had more than 25% but each table has been six feet away from other tables. The thing that irks me, and others, is when asked how did you come up with your rules an answer isn't provided. Meanwhile, he allowed a 5-day car show to go on in Harrisburg (state capital where he lives) because they had a confidential agreement. The estimate was that there were tens of thousands of people there over the the 5 days. Butler county near me has a farm show that is their big money maker for the county and Wolf mandated that the farm show must be cancelled but the car show in his town could go on.
They make it up as they go...
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Jim
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Post by Jim on Sept 23, 2020 10:46:05 GMT -5
I agree with Malcolm's sentiment there seems to be no rhyme or reason for some of the rules here in Pennsylvania. Governor Wolf implemented 25% capacity at restaurants which has destroyed a lot of businesses. He was sued in court over some of his rules by various counites in PA and they have won. A federal judge has ruled that Wolf's rules for restaurants and sporting events is unconstitutional. He asked for a stay so he can appeal but that was denied. There have been a few restaurants that have ignored the 25% rule and have had more than 25% but each table has been six feet away from other tables. The thing that irks me, and others, is when asked how did you come up with your rules an answer isn't provided. Meanwhile, he allowed a 5-day car show to go on in Harrisburg (state capital where he lives) because they had a confidential agreement. The estimate was that there were tens of thousands of people there over the the 5 days. Butler county near me has a farm show that is their big money maker for the county and Wolf mandated that the farm show must be cancelled but the car show in his town could go on. They make it up as they go... LS Fest and the Carlisle National shows went on as well.
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MalcolmR
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Post by MalcolmR on Sept 23, 2020 10:55:20 GMT -5
$250 fines for attending an oversized gathering. $500 for organizing an oversized gathering. still, no limits on protest sizes. Cheapskates; our fines are up to £10,000.
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